ICRA Insight

September 2025

Foreword

We are pleased to present the September 2025 edition of ICRA Insights, continuing our commitment to delivering timely, research-backed perspectives on India’s evolving macro and sectoral landscape.

This month’s Monthly Macro Wrap features updated forecasts from our Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar. Following the GST rationalisation, India’s real GDP growth for FY2026 has been revised to 6.5%. The CPI inflation is projected at 3%, WPI at ~1% and nominal GDP at 8.3%. A rate cut may be on the anvil. While the fiscal buffers remain intact, the current account deficit is expected to cross 1% of GDP.

In our Spotlight on CSR, we highlight “Guiding Dreams, Building Futures.” On August 27, ICRA and Deepalaya hosted a Career Guidance Workshop at Nuh, Haryana, inspiring 200 students. Leaders Aditi Nayar and Manushree Saggar shared their journeys of ambition and growth.

The Research Recap covers trends in affordable housing finance, the steel industry and primary copper. The key themes include loan book growth, export competition and tariff impacts.

This edition also features webinar details, rating updates, methodologies, media coverage, and our latest podcast by Ms. Sweta Shroff on the residential sector. We hope you find this edition insightful and engaging.

K. Ravichandran

Chief Ratings Officer, ICRA Limited.

Aditi Nayar

Chief Economist, ICRA Limited.

Monthly Macro Wrap

ICRA’s Chief Economist Aditi Nayar shares updated macro forecasts for FY2026. Following the GST rationalisation, India’s real GDP growth has been revised back to 6.5%. The CPI inflation is projected at 3%, WPI at ~1% and nominal GDP at 8.3%. A rate cut is likely. While the fiscal buffers remain intact, the current account deficit is expected to cross 1% of GDP.

Listen to the podcast

Spotlight
on CSR

Guiding Dreams, Building Futures

ICRA and Deepalaya came together to raise awareness among the students at Nuh in Haryana about the importance of education and career. A Career Guidance Workshop on August 27 inspired 200 students, as leaders Aditi Nayar and Manushree Saggar shared their journeys of ambition and growth. Click here to know more!

Research Recap

Affordable Housing Finance Companies

The loan book grew by a moderate 21% YoY in FY2025 and Q1 FY2026 compared with FY2024. The asset quality remains stable, though portfolio seasoning effects are pending. The borrowings remain dominated by bank loans and NHB refinance, maintaining a consistent funding mix.

Steel Industry – Trends and Outlook

Domestic steel firms posted strong Q1 FY2026 results, driven by rising steel prices and lower input costs. A sharp Q2 correction looms. Despite the recent recovery, export competition from Japan and Korea continues to cap the profit spreads.

Primary Copper Industry

The US imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper, disrupting global trade. LME copper prices rose amid demand and inventory build-up. India’s exports face moderate exposure, while upstream copper firms may experience margin compression in FY2026.